The Winner of the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics is....

On Oct 13, at roughly 2pm DC time, the Nobel committee will announce the 2008 winner of the Economics prize. Who will it be?

Here are my picks, in the order of likelihood.

1. Alchian and Demsetz, for their contribution to the theory of the firm.

2. Bhagwati and Krueger, for their contribution to trade theory and also, quite separately, to the theory of rent-seeking.

3. Fama and French, for work on financial economics.

4. Hart and Holmstrom, for contract theory, and for Oliver Hart's latest paper on debt enforcement.

5. Barro, for work on economic growth.

Any other bets?