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November 19, 2008

Entrepreneurship - the key to prosperity?

Following the G20 summit this weekend, the leaders of the world's largest economies issued a statement explaining how they intend to remake the world's economic architecture. On the very first page of the statement you'll run across the following:

Our work will be guided by a shared belief that market principles, open trade and investment regimes, and effectively regulated financial markets foster the dynamism, innovation, and entrepreneurship that are essential for economic growth, employment, and poverty reduction.

It might be tempting to treat this merely as empty rhetoric, but I think it's worthwhile to look at what the data actually shows about these relationships. The most recent data from the World Bank Group Entrepreneurship Survey - which covers 100 countries - indicates a very strong (and statistically significant) relationship between entrepreneurship and economic well-being. (Entrepreneurship is measured by the entry density rate of limited liability companies and economic well-being is measured by GDP per capita.)

Entry 

Of course, the normal caveats apply in terms of assigning causality to correlations. Yet it seems quite plausible that the causality runs from entrepreneurship to high GDP per capita, and the collection of more longitudinal data - the Entrepreneurship Survey is now in its third year - should enable researchers to make more robust conclusions about causality.

In other words, we shouldn't be so quick to dismiss the G20's statement as empty rhetoric.

For more on entrepreneurship around the world, check out some of these resources:

Cross-posted on the PSD blog.

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An interesting part of the G20 statement are the "common principle of reform", more specifically the principle of "enhancing sound regulation". I'm curious to see how the working group on developing this topic will define "sound regulation" that is "effective over the economic cycle, while ensuring that regulation is efficient, does not stifle innovation, and ecourages expanded trade in financial products and services."


So should we conclude from the data that Entry Rate Density causes GDP per Capita, or vice versa?

I think it would be more meaningful to look at one of the variables from 5 years ago, then compare it with the change in the other variable over the last 5 years. This would more clearly support a hypothesis that Entry Rate Density leads to increase in GDP per capita.


The interactive chart for this data is amazing:

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTFR/Resources/475459-1222364030476/EntrepreneurshipDatabaseMotionChart.html

If you move the time slider at the bottom, you can see that there are two behaviors. From 2000-2007, some nations have fluctuations in the Entry Rate Density, but no improvement in GDP (no correlation). Others seem march together (positive correlation).

It would be interesting to compare the nations that are "benefiting" from increased Entry Rate Density, compared to the ones that are not.


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