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November 05, 2008

The Mighty Potato

A new paper by Nathan Nunn (Harvard University) and Nancy Qian (Brown University) comes up with a startling conclusion: the adoption of potatoes in the Old World (meaning Europe) explains 17% of the post-1700 increase in population growth and 37% of the increase in urbanization growth.

The basic story is that potatoes require less space than grains to produce the same calorie intake (about two-thirds less, to be exact); they store well; can be planted in fallow lands; do not require much cultivation; and can be eaten by cows and pigs, who in turn provide meat and milk. So much for laughing at the Germans' steady diet of meat-and-potatoes. Turns out it is based on potatoes-and-potatoes.

The introduction of potatoes to Europe can be thought of as an agricultural innovation, akin to cell phones (in communication) or the Doing Business project (in regulatory reform).

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Jared Diamond's "Guns, Germs, and Steel" explores this issue in great detail. His thesis is that geography-related constraints held back certain regions. For instance, Papua New Guinea has an ideal climate for agriculture, but the indigenous plants are low in nutritional value and cannot be stored for very long.

The bottom line: the global sharing of technological improvements, whether intellectual (farming methods) or physical (potato seeds), has raised the quality of life for mankind. Doesn't that sound similar to the goals of Doing Business?


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